Power system risk assessment using a hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation

This paper presents fuzzy-probabilistic modeling techniques for system component outage parameters and load curves. The fuzzy membership functions of system component outage parameters are developed using statistical records whereas the system load is modeled using a combined fuzzy and probabilistic representation. Based on the fuzzy-probabilistic models, a hybrid method of fuzzy set and Monte Carlo simulation for power system risk assessment is proposed to capture both randomness and fuzziness of loads and component outage parameters. An actual example using a regional system at BCTC is given to demonstrate the application of the presented fuzzy-probabilistic models for system parameters and new system risk evaluation method.