A simulation model to analyze the residual load during the extension of highly fluctuating renewables in Bavaria, Germany

Globally, electric energy systems are faced with great challenges due to the massive growth of electricity generated by renewable energy sources. The situation in Germany is even more pronounced because of the planned phase-out of nuclear energy. The high penetration of volatile decentralized renewables such as wind and solar energy contributes to a shift of the electric energy system. The present legally guaranteed priority over conventional power plants leads to a change of the characteristics of the residual load - defined as the difference between electricity demand and the amount supplied by renewables. In order to predict various system aspects with adequate accuracy, we developed a flexible, validated, and efficient simulation model. In this paper, we describe our model and apply it to investigate the properties of the residual load based on the electric energy system of the German federal state Bavaria. The simulation results show that the mean of the residual load will decline whereas the hours of negative residual load will increase over the next ten years.