ATC calculation based on Markov chain and ranking method for AC/DC hybrid system

The super large scale AC/DC hybrid network has taken shape in China, so the research on ATC calculation model and algorithm for AC/DC systems is urgently needed. Large amount of uncertainties and dynamic, continuous and time-varying features of AC/DC hybrid systems have great impacts on ATC. So, how to deal with these uncertainties in ATC calculation is of great significance. Markov chain has the ability to describe the uncertainties, and forecast the future states of power systems based on the initial state and transition probability. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to forecast continuous system states based on Markov chain. And ranking method is presented to select the fault which has the greatest impact on ATC. With both of them, ATC curve of AC/DC hybrid system can be gained quickly. The algorithm based on MATLAB7.1 is developed. 11 bus test system is used to verify the presented approach.