Short-term forecasts incorporated in dynamic security assessment of power systems

Power system operation is increasingly dependent on the intermittent behavior of renewable energy sources. It is well known, that weather forecasts become more exact the shorter they look into the future. Hence, actual power system states differ considerably from the day ahead planning. To ensure the secure operation under these circumstances, the much more exact forecasts of 1 to 4 hours ahead must be used to determine the system security and enable sophisticated measures to be taken to prevent the system from suffering events like blackouts.