Title :
Steps to implement Bayesian input distribution selection
Author :
Chick, Stephen E.
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Ind. & Oper. Eng., Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI, USA
fDate :
6/21/1905 12:00:00 AM
Abstract :
There are known pragmatic and theoretical difficulties associated with some standard approaches for input distribution selection for discrete-event simulations. One difficulty is a systematic underestimate of the variance of the expected simulation output that comes from not knowing the `true´ parameter values. Another is a lack of quantification of the probability that a given distribution is best. Bayesian methods have been proposed as an alternative, but acceptance has not yet been achieved, in part because of increased computational demands, as well as challenges posed by the specification of prior distributions. In this paper, we show that responses to questions like those already asked and answered in practice can be used to develop prior distributions for a wide class of models. Further, we illustrate techniques for addressing some computational difficulties thought to be associated with the implementation of Bayesian methodology
Keywords :
Bayes methods; discrete event simulation; probability; Bayesian input distribution selection; best distribution probability; computational demands; discrete-event simulations; expected simulation output; parameter values; prior distribution specification; variance underestimation; Bayesian methods; Computational modeling; Context modeling; Discrete event simulation; Distributed computing; Histograms; Probability distribution; Random processes; Stochastic systems; Uncertainty;
Conference_Titel :
Simulation Conference Proceedings, 1999 Winter
Conference_Location :
Phoenix, AZ
Print_ISBN :
0-7803-5780-9
DOI :
10.1109/WSC.1999.823090