Title : 
Evaluating the probability of a good selection
         
        
            Author : 
Nelson, Barry L. ; Banerjee, Souvik
         
        
            Author_Institution : 
Dept. of Ind. Eng. & Manage. Sci., Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL, USA
         
        
        
        
            fDate : 
6/21/1905 12:00:00 AM
         
        
        
            Abstract : 
We present a two-stage experiment design for use in simulation experiments that compare systems in terms of their expected (long-run average) performance. This procedure simultaneously achieves the following with a prespecified probability of being correct: (a) find the best system or a near best system; (b) identify a subset of systems that are more than a practically insignificant difference from the best; and (c) provide a lower bound on the probability that the best or near best system has actually been selected. The procedure assumes normally distributed data, but allows unequal variances
         
        
            Keywords : 
design of experiments; digital simulation; performance evaluation; probability; expected performance; good selection probability; long-run average; lower bound; near best system; normally distributed data; prespecified probability; simulation experiments; two-stage experiment design; unequal variances; Analytical models; Engineering management; Industrial engineering; Personal communication networks; Sampling methods;
         
        
        
        
            Conference_Titel : 
Simulation Conference Proceedings, 1999 Winter
         
        
            Conference_Location : 
Phoenix, AZ
         
        
            Print_ISBN : 
0-7803-5780-9
         
        
        
            DOI : 
10.1109/WSC.1999.823142