Forecasting charging load of plug-in electric vehicles in China

In this paper, in order to forecast the charging load of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in China in 2015, 2020, 2030, the development status and trends of PEVs in China is introduced first. Then the energy supply modes of different kinds of PEVs in China are analyzed. Correspondingly, the charging load model is proposed based on the charging needs of different kinds of cars. For forecasting the charging load, the charging periods are determined according to the probability distribution. With the charging methods (either on slow, regular, or fast mode), together with the starting point for state of charge (SOC) and charging needs of different PEV types, the actual charging time can be calculated. Accordingly, the range of starting charging time is narrowed. The Monte Carlo simulation method is then applied to determine the initial charging point based on probability distributions of starting charging time. The results indicate that the charging of EVs will pose significant impacts on the power grid in 2030 in China. The huge difference between charging peak and off-peak provides a substantial potential to coordinate the charging of EVs.