Integration of fluctuating renewable energy — A German case study

With increasing amounts of power generation from intermittent sources like wind and solar, capacity planning has not only to account for the expected load variations but also for the stochastics of volatile power feed-in. Moreover investments in power generation are no longer centrally planned in deregulated power markets but rather decided on competitive grounds by individual power companies. This poses particular challenges when it comes to evaluating future electricity markets in large-scale systems like the European transmission system. Within this article an approach is presented which allows assessing electricity market development in the presence of stochastic power feed-in and endogenous investments of power plants and renewable energies. This model uses typical days and hours as well as recombining trees to represent both load and feed-in fluctuations. Four scenarios are presented covering 30 European countries and simultaneously optimizing generation investments and dispatch as well as utilization of transmission lines. Results are presented up to 2050.