An objective look at predictions — Ask questions, challenge answers

For more than 25 years, there has been a passionate dialog throughout the reliability engineering community as to the appropriate use of empirical and physics-based reliability models, and their associated benefits, limitations and risks. The mission of the Reliability Information Analysis Center (RIAC), as an Information Analysis Center (IAC) sponsored by the DoD Defense Technical Information Center (DTIC) over the last 40 years, has been to participate in this discussion to promote an objective understanding of the issues from both perspectives. The purpose of this paper is to document and re-emphasize the appropriate circumstances for each model and prediction type, and to identify those relevant questions that need to be asked to ensure that all prediction approaches are objectively considered, appropriately applied, and their results correctly interpreted and communicated.