Application of renewal processes for the simulation of outage capacities in power systems

One of the main tasks for independent system and transmission system operators is to overcome the outage capacities of the power system in any time period. How much reserve capacity do we need to cover the forced outages in the power system in a given time interval? In the paper based on the historical data of generating units for the operational states (service, repair, maintenance and reserve) stochastic models are developed applying alternating renewal processes. These models were employed using Monte Carlo simulation to calculate probability distributions of the capacity outages for any time intervals of the planning horizon. Demonstrative examples are shown for the generating units of the Hungarian power system.