Integration of uncertainty information into power system operations

Contemporary power systems face uncertainties coming from multiple sources, including forecast errors of load, wind and solar generation, uninstructed deviation and forced outage of traditional generators, and unscheduled loss of transmission lines. With increasing amounts of wind and solar generation being integrated into the system, these uncertainties have been growing significantly. It is critically important to build the knowledge of major sources of uncertainties, learn how to model them, and then incorporate this information into decision-making processes and power system operations, for better reliability and efficiency. This paper gives a comprehensive overview on the sources of uncertainties in power systems, their important characteristics and models, and approaches for integrating uncertainty information into system operations. It is primarily based on previous works conducted at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL).