A new approach for predicting project duration using beta shape membership functions and simulation

In this paper a new approach for predicting the project duration is introduced. Fuzzy values with beta shape memberships are used - Instead of using the pessimistic, most likely and optimistic values - for estimating the durations of activities. Also the possibility of performing any activity in estimated duration is taken to account by using beta shape memberships for a reliable estimating of activity duration. The delay times of activities caused by environment are also considered. The Mont Carlo simulation is used for comparing the results obtained by the introduced method and the classic PERT.