Foundations for a time reliability correlation system to quantify human reliability

Data taken from simulators have provided evidence for development of a system for TRCs (time reliability correlations). This system has the equational form: t= tau /sub R/* tau /sub U/ where the first factor is the lognormally distributed random variable of successful response time, derived from the simulator data, and the second factor is a unitary lognormal random variable to account for uncertainty in the model. The first random variable is further factored in a median response time and a factor to account for the dominant type of behavior assumed to be involved in the response and a second factor to account for other influences on the reliability of the response. This system correlates in an intuitive way with the TRCs frequently used in PRA (probabilistic risk assessment) and is robust enough to have been used in the eleven PRAs, accommodating all of the known factors in the reliability of post-initiator responses.<>