Monte Carlo method with application in automobile insurance

This article researches some problems in the automobile insurance in the non-life insurance, and calculates the posterior distribution of the claims frequency and posterior estimates of the missing parameter values by MCMC simulation. In the case of incomplete historical data, uses WinBUGS package to find the posterior distribution of the claim frequency parameters and the estimate of the correlation parameters. The results obtained show that the model not only to make up for the traditional model, but also improving the accuracy of the calculation. And also have a practical significance for improving the determining experience rating in automobile insurance.