Research on driving forces and policy for agricultural sustainable development — An empirical study on grain production of Henan Province

Sustainable growth in agriculture is an important issue of economic security in the accelerated industrialization period. Based on the grain production data and its main influencing factors from 1990 to 2008 in Henan Province, this paper revealed the dynamic effects of variables, by constructing the State Space Equation of Time-Varying Parameter Model, conducted empirical analysis on the driving forces of Henan´s grain yield and the dynamic change at different periods. Based on comparative dynamic analysis, we find that irrigation index has become the primary factor in the grain production influencing factors, the effect of fertilizer input and planting area experienced increase at the beginning and decrease later on. The contribution of the number of agricultural labor and agricultural mechanical input is turning from positive to negative. Finally, according to the result, the paper suggested several policy for agricultural sustainable development.