Urban car ownership integrated forecast based on different income levels

Per income plays a dominating role in explaining a car ownership. The nonlinear relationship between car ownership and per disposable income is analyzed respectively using the Gompertz model. Taking into account the income inequality affect the car ownership, this paper divided the urban residents into several groups with different income levels. And the forecast of car ownership is obtained by integrating all forecasts for different groups. The forecast results show that the integrated forecast can improve the prediction accuracy.