Methodology of power generation system planning: multicriteria optimization accounting for uncertainty factors

A practical approach to select a predetermined number of the best (“reasonable”) alternatives from their vast initial set according to the given multiple criteria is proposed. The important aspect of this approach is devoted to accounting for uncertainty factors inherent in many problems related to long term planning. An implementation of the proposed approach in medium and long term planning of power generation system expansion is presented in this paper. The appropriate solution process includes the following stages: construction of an initial set of alternatives (ISA) as a dynamic-tree of combinations of new generating units in each year of the planning period; determination of a criteria assessment vector for each considered ISA alternative based on creation of the appropriate calculation models for each criterion. The set of all these criteria assessment vectors (ISCAV) is interrelated with ISA set; and using different multicriteria optimization techniques, modified to account for uncertainty factors and decision makers´ opinions, for the ISCAV optimization in a framework of multi-variant computations in order to obtain the “stable” solutions adapted to intermediate results. These “stable” solutions enable reasonable alternatives to be obtained and in consequence a final solution (in a form desired by decision makers) can be achieved. Two computer program packages have been developed to implement the presented approach for the conditions prevailing in the Israeli electric system