Simulation and Identification of Spatial Uncertainty of Urban Air Pollution

There are significant uncertainties inherent to urban development associated with economic growth and land use. These uncertainties will interact and cumulate, leading to ´fluctuation´ of environmental impact. This study aims to develop a methodological framework to quantitatively simulate and analyze the spatial uncertainty of urban air pollution in parallel with future urban development, by combining scenario analysis and spatial Monte Carlo sampling technique. This framework is developed for a long-term assessment at a regional scale, which is illuminated in this article by a case study in Dalian Municipality, China.