Assessment and Prediction Model of China´s Energy Assurance Sustainability

The stability of energy supply, sustainability of energy economy and safety of energy utilization were applied as fundamental aspects for building an index system in this paper to evaluate the risk of energy security in China. The Delphi method and the principal components analyzing method were used, and ten essential indexes, such as energy consumption elastic index, proportion of clean energy consumption, energy self-reliance rate, petroleum price, regional import risk of oil and so on were chosen to set up the energy security grade as an overall index for the energy risk evaluation. A fuzzy comprehensive assessment model was also proposed in the article. In further considerations, this paper carried on a quantitative evaluation to the energy security of China in recent years by using the models of BP neural network The early-warning forecast indicated that the predicted value of the energy security risk was safe in 2006, and the value of that in 2007 is between "worth paying attention to" and "danger". Therefore, the contradiction of China\´s energy consumption will still exist in the near future and the situation of energy security will not be optimistic.