Simulation and Assessment of Surface Water Quality in Response to Urban Land Use Change

There would be environmental pressures on ambient surface water in response to land use change in parallel with urban development. The major problems for simulation and assessment are due to the uncertainties inherent in land use change, which cannot be eliminated by relevant land use plan or urban development plan. On this account, this paper develops an integrated simulation and assessment methodology for surface water by application of uncertainty analysis technique on land use change. It consists of three main stages: (1) scenario design for land use structure, (2) simulation of possible land use change in spatial, (3) and assessment of surface water quality associated with land use change. The proposed methodology can provide probability distribution of water quality and composition of pollution contributors, and can help decision makers identify critical factors and potential environmental risks with sufficient considerations on uncertainties of land use change.