Affordability studies using probability of failure for complex aerospace systems

The ability to apply extensive R&M analysis while a design is still plastic, has the potential to provide dramatic cost savings during new product development. Modem R&M analysis tools that are fully integrated with the other engineering analysis tools, can provide this capability. Since no new aerospace development is truly entirely new, with as much as 85% of its components having been used in other products, the process of moving R&M analysis to an earlier portion of the concept development effort is a matter of integrating extensive component libraries with existing analysis algorithms. When these ingredients are combined with a modern graphical users interface (GUI), it becomes possible to quickly characterize large complex aerospace systems with sufficient detail to identify the significant R&M drivers. Cost savings are also realized in the increased productivity of the individual analyst. Tools like the Automated Concurrent Engineering Synthesis- Advanced Reliability Modeling (ACES-ARM) are having the effect of more affordable designs. Other cost advantages in using ACES-ARM are the reduction of resources (personnel and time) to perform R&M analysis, and a significant reduction in the amount of training required to run the ACES models. Improved inter-engineering discipline communication also reduces the time and effort required to conceive and simulate a new aerospace product. The time from drawing board to ramp is therefore reduced. The paper describes the use of ACES-ARM