Title :
Research of icing thickness on transmission lines based on fuzzy Markov chain prediction
Author :
Chang Liu ; Hong Wei Liu ; Yin Shun Wang ; Jia Zheng Lu ; Xun Jian Xu ; Yan Jun Tan
Author_Institution :
State Key Lab. of New Energy Power Syst., North China Electr. Power Univ., Beijing, China
Abstract :
Power system operation is confronted with the problem of how to reduce the damage that caused by the ice on the transmission lines as much as possible. Due to the indeterminacy of icing thickness on the transmission lines, accurate prediction of the icing thickness is essential in order to effectively guide the transmission line route planning and ice-resistant design of electric grid. Currently, there are relatively few research results on the medium and long term prediction of the icing thickness on the transmission lines. This paper presents a transmission line icing thickness prediction model that based on fuzzy Markov chain prediction, combining with the practical measured data from the Czech Studnice Observatory between 1940 and 1999. The model was verified through forecasting the range of the annual maximum of icing thickness during 1994-1999. The result shows that the accuracy of this method reached 80%.
Keywords :
Markov processes; ice; power transmission lines; power transmission planning; electric grid; fuzzy Markov chain prediction; ice resistant design; icing thickness; power system operation; transmission line route planning; transmission lines; Markov processes; Mathematical model; Observatories; Power transmission lines; Predictive models; Transmission line measurements; fuzzy Markov chain prediction; ice-resistant design; icing thickness; transmission line;
Conference_Titel :
Applied Superconductivity and Electromagnetic Devices (ASEMD), 2013 IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Beijing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4799-0068-8
DOI :
10.1109/ASEMD.2013.6780786