Coevolutionary cycles of convergence: will "NBT" become the next ICT?

Convergence between technologies can be regarded as an increasingly emerging trend, and has received particular attention in the coming-together of previously distinct products and solutions within the information and communication technologies (ICT) industry. In previous research, the overall impact of the convergence phenomenon remains ambiguous. Whereas some scholars suggest convergence to be associated with disintegration, entry and growth, others relate the phenomenon to opposite effects, such as consolidation and shakeouts. This inconsistency in managerial conceptions on convergence formulates a need for an integrated understanding. Within a multi-case study approach, the convergence within information and communication technologies (ICT) has been observed through studying the coevolution of actors in a converging environment, and patterns in innovation dynamics and managerial responses have been identified. In reflection with existing models of innovation cycles, a model for convergence innovation processes is elaborated and discussed. In particular, the reasoning within the ICT case set is transferred onto the currently emerging entrepreneurial activities in the intersection between nano- and bio-technologies (NBT), resulting in a comparison between ICT and NBT convergences, and deriving recommendations from a retrospective to a predictive context.