Future operation mode forecasting and analysis based on dispatching integration system

As the power grid size gradually expanded, forecasting on the power grid operation mode has become the treatment of complicated and changeable effective means of security and stability issues. In this article, on the basis of the dispatching integration system, several kinds of forecasting data, including system load forecasting results, bus load forecasting results, generation schedule, maintenance plan, tie line plan data and stability monitoring limits are collected, which come from different application or module of power grid system. In order to look for the most similar power grid network topology model as a carrier, a novel method is proposed. That would help finding the power grid network topology model based on the forecasting data from many history power grid network topology model. And all of the forecasting data will be integrated by the carrier for formation full of next day 96 o´clock of power operation mode, which is 15 minutes apart. In this process of identification and treatment of a variety of data, according to the whole system of active and reactive power balance, the dynamic adjustment of power grid system flow will be done, until the flow is convergent. In order to acquire the cases of next day 96 o´clock of future opration modes, the system should do few things. The first is the base state power grip flow analysis based on the future operation mode forecasting, when it appears power more limited or voltage more limited of power device, corresponding adjustment will be done for the related of power unit or load, to guarantee the system run in security stability margin range within. The second is the limitation comparison based on the stability monitoring limits. The third is static security analysis based on the future operation mode forecasting, to judge the bear ability of power grid system on fault. The fourth is sensitivity analysis based on the future operation mode forecasting. The prediction and analysis of future opration mode of po- er network makes it possible to power network based on research in the future state, based on the analysis of the way of the future opration mode can get more information on power system operation in the future, to prevent accidents from happening previously.