Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation Based Available Transfer Capability Calculation

Available transmission capability (ATC) is the transfer capability remaining in physical transmission network for further commercial activity above existing transmission commitments. ATC is an important reference for market participators to make decisions, as well as a judgment for system operators to alleviate transmission congestion, and a reference for system planning and expansion. Most of the existing ATC calculation methods are mainly based on deterministic techniques. In practical power systems, there are large amount of uncertainties, and power system is dynamic and time-varying. A novel approach is proposed to analyze relevant features of ATC and calculate ATC based on sequential Monte Carlo simulation and linear programming considering uncertainties and time variation of the system. Through long-time simulation and analysis, the distribution features of ATC can be obtained. The algorithm based on MATLAB 6.5 is developed. IEEE 14-bus test system is used to verify the presented approach.