Application of grey prediction model to water pollution accidents

Author

Yunlong, Zhang ; Mao, Liu

Author_Institution

Dept. of Safety Eng., Jiangsu Univ., Zhenjiang, China

Volume

2

fYear

2011

Firstpage

1551

Lastpage

1553

Abstract

In order to find the discipline of water pollution accidents, statistics and forecast methods are often used to formulate emergency plans in safety engineering. In this paper, a famous prediction model which is known as “Grey Model First Order One Variable”(GM(1, 1)) model is used in prediction of water pollution accidents that took place in recent years. We use an illustrating example of water pollution as our case study to test the efficiency and accuracy of the GM(1, 1) model. According to the experimental results, the performance of this model is good and it is useful for government to make emergency decisions.

Keywords

accident prevention; emergency services; forecasting theory; grey systems; statistics; water pollution; emergency plans; forecast methods; grey model first order one variable; grey prediction model; safety engineering; statistics; water pollution accidents; Accidents; Adaptation model; Analytical models; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Predictive models; Water pollution; Grey System Theory; environment; water pollution;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Water Resource and Environmental Protection (ISWREP), 2011 International Symposium on

Conference_Location

Xi´an

Print_ISBN

978-1-61284-339-1

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ISWREP.2011.5893324

Filename

5893324