Value at Risk Method for Asset Management of Power Transmission Systems

The value at risk (VaR) is a popular method in financial world. VaR measures the worst expected loss over a given horizon under normal market conditions at a given confidence level. This procedure summarizes objectively the exposure to market risk and the probability of adverse move. So VaR measurement can be applied as benchmark of different portfolio, as control instrument for asset owners and as regulation instrument for asset management. The simplicity and objectivity of VaR concludes to the idea, to apply this method for power systems risk management. Basing on the simple example concerning transmission network, a VaR derivation model for power transmission and distribution systems is presented. The discussion concerning advantages of this model in relationship to the conventional reliability methods is closing the paper.