• DocumentCode
    1715489
  • Title

    Load forecasting based on neural networks and load profiling

  • Author

    Sousa, J.C. ; Neves, L.P. ; Jorge, H.M.

  • Author_Institution
    Sch. of Technol. & Manage., Polytech. Inst. of Leiria, Leiria, Portugal
  • fYear
    2009
  • Firstpage
    1
  • Lastpage
    8
  • Abstract
    This work presents a novel perspective of load forecasting based on neural networks and load profiling. In addition to the variables that are typically used to predict future load demand, such as past load values, meteorological variables, seasonal effects or macroeconomic indexes, it is expected that the use of load profiles and detailed information of individual consumers could favor the forecasting process. The methodology can be extended to different temporal horizons being predicted and the eventual threat of overparametrization is attenuated by the use of neural networks since the complexity of the model does not necessarily depends on the number of its weights and biases, as some of these parameters might be found irrelevant in the process. Another way to reduce the risk of overparametrization and overfitting is through the use of a considerable number of data points (whenever historical data is available) to train the network.
  • Keywords
    load forecasting; neural nets; power engineering computing; load forecasting; load profiling; load value; macroeconomic index; meteorological variable; neural networks; over fitting; over parametrization; Costs; Demand forecasting; Energy consumption; Load forecasting; Load management; Macroeconomics; Meteorology; Neural networks; Polynomials; Predictive models; Load Forecasting; Load Profiling and Neural Networks;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    PowerTech, 2009 IEEE Bucharest
  • Conference_Location
    Bucharest
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4244-2234-0
  • Electronic_ISBN
    978-1-4244-2235-7
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/PTC.2009.5281832
  • Filename
    5281832