DocumentCode
1715489
Title
Load forecasting based on neural networks and load profiling
Author
Sousa, J.C. ; Neves, L.P. ; Jorge, H.M.
Author_Institution
Sch. of Technol. & Manage., Polytech. Inst. of Leiria, Leiria, Portugal
fYear
2009
Firstpage
1
Lastpage
8
Abstract
This work presents a novel perspective of load forecasting based on neural networks and load profiling. In addition to the variables that are typically used to predict future load demand, such as past load values, meteorological variables, seasonal effects or macroeconomic indexes, it is expected that the use of load profiles and detailed information of individual consumers could favor the forecasting process. The methodology can be extended to different temporal horizons being predicted and the eventual threat of overparametrization is attenuated by the use of neural networks since the complexity of the model does not necessarily depends on the number of its weights and biases, as some of these parameters might be found irrelevant in the process. Another way to reduce the risk of overparametrization and overfitting is through the use of a considerable number of data points (whenever historical data is available) to train the network.
Keywords
load forecasting; neural nets; power engineering computing; load forecasting; load profiling; load value; macroeconomic index; meteorological variable; neural networks; over fitting; over parametrization; Costs; Demand forecasting; Energy consumption; Load forecasting; Load management; Macroeconomics; Meteorology; Neural networks; Polynomials; Predictive models; Load Forecasting; Load Profiling and Neural Networks;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
PowerTech, 2009 IEEE Bucharest
Conference_Location
Bucharest
Print_ISBN
978-1-4244-2234-0
Electronic_ISBN
978-1-4244-2235-7
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/PTC.2009.5281832
Filename
5281832
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