Stochastic model of MV feeders quality of supply for investment strategy studies

With the opening of the market, distribution network managers have been confronted with new challenges. In particular, the control of risks resulting from an indemnification policy covering the overstepping of quality thresholds will probably be expressed in terms of the amount of long power cuts for a given medium-voltage feeder. Asset managers would have to fulfil their commitments regarding the number of power cuts, and to set up their policies for burying aerial lines and replacing old cables. So, new methods of investments should be developed, optimising the compromise between risks of overstepping quality thresholds and investment strategies. This risk management approach should be based on a quality model of the network presented in this paper as follows : Section 1 presents the aim of the model, Section 2 describes the model itself, and its set of parameters, Section 3 develops new ways of investment strategy, Section 4 gives an example of model and studies on a large sample of the French network.