Load Forecast under uncertainty: Accounting for the economic crisis impact

This paper presents a novel model for the load forecast under uncertainty specially designed for markets under permanent evolution. The proposed approach does not rely on statistic models designed to reproduce the past. Instead, we make extensive use of intelligent models able to explain consumers´ behavior and its specific characteristics. This model has gained importance in the present days, where the risks associated to the economic crisis lye underneath any decision and require a reliable and complete to support every decision. A comprehensive case study with the Southeastern Brazilian market is presented and discussed, enlightening the dependencies between load consumption and international economic indices.