Title :
Modeling and forecasting short-term electricity load based on multi adaptive neural-fuzzy inference system by using temperature
Author :
Soozanchi-K, Zohreh ; Yaghobi, Mahdi ; Akbarzadeh-T, Mohammad-R ; Habibipour, Maryam
Author_Institution :
Dept. of Artificial Intell., Islamic Azad Univ., Mashhad, Iran
Abstract :
In this paper, the use of Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to study the design of Short-Term Load Forecasting (STLF) systems for the east of Iran was explored. While reviewing the probability of chaos and predictability of electricity load curve by Lyapunov exponent, this paper forecasts consumed load by using multi ANFIS. Entries of the presented model are into the multi ANFIS including the date of the day, temperature maximum and minimum, climate condition and the previous days consumed load and its exit is forecasting of power load consumption of every season. The results show that temperature has an important role in load forecast.
Keywords :
Lyapunov methods; adaptive systems; chaos; fuzzy neural nets; inference mechanisms; load forecasting; power consumption; power engineering computing; temperature; Iran; Lyapunov exponent; chaos probability; electricity load curve predictability; multiANFIS; multiadaptive neural fuzzy inference system; power load consumption; short term electricity load forecasting; Adaptation model; Artificial neural networks; Forecasting; Load forecasting; Load modeling; Predictive models; Time series analysis; Load forecasting; Lyapunov exponent; Multi ANFIS;
Conference_Titel :
Signal Processing Systems (ICSPS), 2010 2nd International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Dalian
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4244-6892-8
Electronic_ISBN :
978-1-4244-6893-5
DOI :
10.1109/ICSPS.2010.5555848