The forecast of cultivate land quantity based on Grey-Markov model: A case study of Jiangsu province

Author

Huan Hong-yan ; Tan Qing-mei

Author_Institution

Dept. of Econ. & Manage., Nanjing Univ. of Aeronaut. & Astronaut., Nanjing, China

fYear

2011

Firstpage

276

Lastpage

280

Abstract

The change of cultivated land resources concerns national food security and sustainable development of economy and society. So that, it is significant to choose a scientific and reasonable prediction. But, the methods´ alteration towards the arable land survey causes the system uncertainty. This paper employed the Gray-Markov Chain Model for the scale prediction of cultivated land and took an empirical research with a case of Jiangsu province. The results show that the Gray-Markov Chain Model has a higher prediction accuracy compared with GM (1,1), which is a reliable guarantee for the change of cultivated land resources.

Keywords

Markov processes; forecasting theory; grey systems; land use planning; sustainable development; Jiangsu province; arable land survey; cultivate land quantity; cultivated land resources; economy; gray-Markov chain model; grey-Markov model; national food security; reasonable prediction; society; sustainable development; system uncertainty; Accuracy; Markov processes; Reliability; GM(1,1) model; Grey-Markov model; cultivated land resources; forecast;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS), 2011 IEEE International Conference on

Conference_Location

Nanjing

Print_ISBN

978-1-61284-490-9

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/GSIS.2011.6044002

Filename

6044002