Title :
Short-term traffic flow prediction based on GM(1,1,Exp) model
Author :
Mao Shuhua ; Chen Ye ; Xiao Xinping
Author_Institution :
Coll. of Sci., Wuhan Univ. of Technol., Wuhan, China
Abstract :
In this paper, we use the gray model through the consolidation of original data to find the changing laws of the system, to generate a strong regularity of the data series, thus well predict the changing trend of the future. Meanwhile, considered the defect that the grey action of traditional GM(1,1) model is constant, we introduce a sine function relation and make the grey action into a dynamic variable which contains time function. Thus, the traditional GM(1,1) model is optimized. Finally, the result shows that the optimized GM(1,1) model can simulate better, and has a higher accuracy.
Keywords :
grey systems; road traffic; GM (1,1,Exp) model; gray model; short-term traffic flow prediction; Analytical models; Cities and towns; Differential equations; Equations; Mathematical model; Vehicles; GM(1,1,exp) model; prediction; short-term traffic flow;
Conference_Titel :
Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (GSIS), 2011 IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
Nanjing
Print_ISBN :
978-1-61284-490-9
DOI :
10.1109/GSIS.2011.6044003