Cost prediction model of commercial aircraft based on grey incidence weight

This study concentrates on the cost prediction of commercial aircraft which is a crucial factor influencing its research and manufacturing. To tackle the situation that the cost-related information is difficult to get in the designing stage, a cost prediction and simulation model of commercial aircraft called GI-GM(0,N) is constructed based on grey incidence weight. A host of cost values of aircraft related parameters are predicted, and the weight of each cost value is calculated according to their comprehensive grey incidence with the cost, then their weighted summation is calculated as the comprehensive cost of the aircraft. Compared with traditional multi-factor grey prediction models, GI-GM(0,N) model avoids the forecast precision decreasing caused by multi-collinearity during the multiple linear regression based on 1-AGO sequences. In a case study, the cost of a commercial aircraft, short for X jet, is forecasted by GI-GM(0,N). The simulation results confirm a satisfactory forecast result of X jet and reveal that this model is an effective way to predict cost of commercial aircraft. It is expected that GI-GM(0,N) can be applied as an ideal method in simulation and forecast with cross-sectional data in small-sample.