Identification and evaluation of active fault in the reservior head of three gorges project based on grey statistical model

It often plays an important role in the earthquake prediction to monitor and identify fault rupture. Based on five years´ live fault rupture observational data of the three gorges project´s reservior head area, this paper applies grey statistical model to analyze eight live fault ruptures and identify seven live fault ruptures according to 0.1mm displacement criterion per year which is regarded as index for grey type. Because the proposed method takes dislocating rate´s discrete effect into account, the identification and evaluation results from a numerical example confirmed that this method is closer to reality compared with traditional average method.