• DocumentCode
    1729445
  • Title

    On the Prediction Accuracy of Prediction Markets: Would the Spatial Distribution of Information Matter?

  • Author

    Bin-Tzong Chie ; Shu-Heng Chen

  • Author_Institution
    Dept. of Ind. Econ., Tamkang Univ., Taipei, Taiwan
  • fYear
    2013
  • Firstpage
    367
  • Lastpage
    369
  • Abstract
    In this model, an agent-based political futures market is built upon the Schelling segregation model, in which the heterogeneity in ethnicity is replaced by political identity. A two-parameter segregation model is proposed as a first step to explore the effect of information distribution on accuracy of the prediction market.
  • Keywords
    commodity trading; multi-agent systems; politics; Schelling segregation model; agent-based political future market; ethnicity; political identity; prediction accuracy; prediction markets; spatial information distribution; two-parameter segregation model; Accuracy; Communities; Nominations and elections; Predictive models; Social network services; Sociology; Statistics; Schelling´s segregation model; agent-based models; prediction markets; von Neumann neighborhood; zero-intelligence agents;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Technologies and Applications of Artificial Intelligence (TAAI), 2013 Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    Taipei
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4799-2528-5
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/TAAI.2013.79
  • Filename
    6783898