Title :
Assessing project portfolio risk based on Bayesian network
Author :
Dujuan Guan ; Hipel, Keith W. ; Liping Fang ; Peng Guo
Author_Institution :
Sch. of Manage., Northwestern Polytech. Univ., Xi´an, China
Abstract :
The risk of a project portfolio is assessed using a new methodology that identifies the risk transfer in projects by using a Bayesian network structure learning algorithm to construct an interdependent network of risks. In particular, to overcome the drawback of a greedy search algorithm having a random starting structure, the mutual information between project risks is measured before executing the algorithm by computing the impact of technical interactions on project risks. It is demonstrated that the preprocessing can exclude the error and indistinctive connections, so as to reduce the search space effectively. Finally, the project portfolio risk of a practical case is assessed using this method, and the results show that the interdependent network of risks is an effective tool to reveal the risk transfer in projects and infer the value of project portfolio risk.
Keywords :
belief networks; greedy algorithms; investment; learning (artificial intelligence); risk management; search problems; Bayesian network structure learning algorithm; greedy search algorithm; project portfolio risk assessment; risk transfer identification; Bayes methods; Educational institutions; Entropy; Mutual information; Portfolios; Random variables; Search problems; Bayesian network; greedy search algorithm; mutual information; project portfolio; technical interactions;
Conference_Titel :
Systems, Man and Cybernetics (SMC), 2014 IEEE International Conference on
Conference_Location :
San Diego, CA
DOI :
10.1109/SMC.2014.6974136