Short-term forecasting of residential building load for distributed energy management

Author

Iwafune, Yumiko ; Yagita, Yoshie ; Ikegami, Tomoaki ; Ogimoto, Kazuhiko

Author_Institution

Collaborative Res. Center for Energy Eng., Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

fYear

2014

fDate

13-16 May 2014

Firstpage

1197

Lastpage

1204

Abstract

It is expected that energy management systems (EMS) on the demand side can be used as a method for enhancing the capability of balancing supply and demand of a power system under the anticipated increase of renewable energy generation such as photovoltaics (PV). Energy demand and solar radiation must be predicted in order to realize the optimal operation scheduling of demand side appliances by EMS, including heat pump water heaters, PV systems, and solar powered water heaters. This paper presents a day-ahead forecasting method for electricity consumption in a house to contribute to energy management. Ten forecasting methods are examined using real survey data from 35 households over a year in order to verify forecast accuracy. A daily battery operation model is also developed to evaluate the effect of load forecasts.

Keywords

demand side management; distribution networks; domestic appliances; energy management systems; heat pumps; load forecasting; photovoltaic power systems; power consumption; solar heating; solar radiation; EMS; PV systems; daily battery operation model; day-ahead forecasting method; demand side appliances; distributed energy management; electricity consumption; energy demand; energy management systems; forecast accuracy; heat pump water heaters; load forecasts; optimal operation scheduling; photovoltaic systems; power system; renewable energy generation; residential building load; short-term forecasting; solar powered water heaters; solar radiation; Accuracy; Batteries; Buildings; Electricity; Energy management; Forecasting; Load forecasting; Battery operation; Energy management; Short term load forecast;

fLanguage

English

Publisher

ieee

Conference_Titel

Energy Conference (ENERGYCON), 2014 IEEE International

Conference_Location

Cavtat

Type

conf

DOI

10.1109/ENERGYCON.2014.6850575

Filename

6850575