Economic choice of optimum feeder cable considering risk analysis

This paper presents a method considering the risk or probability analysis in the choice of electric utility power cables. Although sophisticated, it is not too complex and can easily be implemented on desktop computers using any spreadsheet program. Initially, the usual methods are presented and some of their characteristics are pointed out. Besides, the parameters subjected to uncertainties are identified. The risk analysis is then introduced. Several calculations are carried out to determine the present value of the cost of losses for each power cable and the probability density function is plotted as a function of the total cost