Peak load demand forecasting by using a fuzzy classification scheme with the convolutive aggregation method

The present work focuses on determining the zone of uncertainty in power system peak load demand forecasting, in order to calculate the risk involved in the initial estimation and the time that this lasts. The techniques being tested consider the uncertainty zone, parametrised from the accumulated overall distribution function, previously calculated. After explaining the results of the bibliographic search, the article gives an explanation of the model for forecasting the distribution function, as well as the system for acquiring, purifying and processing data that is at present being applied. Lastly, after explaining how the estimation of the uncertainty zone is performed, the results from a real case are given