• DocumentCode
    175627
  • Title

    Spare parts consumption rolling forecasting model based on grey LSSVM

  • Author

    Shenyang Liu ; Qi Gao ; Yang Ge ; Zhiwei Li ; Zhirong Li

  • Author_Institution
    Dept. of Equip. Command & Manage., Mech. Eng. Coll., Shijiazhuang, China
  • fYear
    2014
  • fDate
    May 31 2014-June 2 2014
  • Firstpage
    742
  • Lastpage
    744
  • Abstract
    Considering the limited data of spare parts consumption and the stochastic and uncontrollable of the inducing factors, a new rolling forecasting model of grey least square support vector machine (LSSVM) is proposed through analyzing disadvantages of current spare parts consumption forecasting models. The new model not only develops the advantages of accumulation generation of the grey forecasting method, weakens the effect of stochastic-disturbing factors in original sequence and strengthened the regularity of data, but also uses the quickly solving speed and the excellent characteristics of least square support vector machines for nonlinear relationship and avoids the theoretical defects existing in the grey forecasting model. Through continuous interaction between predictive value and statistical value to update the training samples, the model realizes the rolling forecasts of the spare parts consumption. At last, one example is given to testify the effectiveness of the model.
  • Keywords
    forecasting theory; grey systems; least squares approximations; maintenance engineering; statistical analysis; stochastic processes; support vector machines; grey LSSVM; grey forecasting method; least square support vector machine; nonlinear relationship; predictive value; spare parts consumption rolling forecasting model; statistical value; stochastic disturbing factor; training samples; Data models; Delays; Forecasting; Genetic algorithms; Kernel; Predictive models; Support vector machines; grey model; least square support vector machines; rolling forecasting; spare parts consumption;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    Control and Decision Conference (2014 CCDC), The 26th Chinese
  • Conference_Location
    Changsha
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4799-3707-3
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/CCDC.2014.6852263
  • Filename
    6852263