Modelling and forecasting of electric daily peak load movement based on the elliptic-orbit model with weekly periodic extension: a case study

Electric load movement analysis is an important task for effective operation and planning of power systems. It is shown that a weekly quasi-periodicity is enclosed in electric daily peak load movement. On the basis of weekly periodic extension for electric daily peak load movement, the so-called elliptic-orbit model is introduced to describe its movement. Electric daily peak load movement as time series is mapped into the polar coordinates to form the elliptic-orbit model, in which each 7-day-movement is depicted as one elliptic orbit. Experimental results of the Great Britain National Grid and Analysis indicate workability and effectiveness of the proposed method. It is shown that the electric daily peak load movement with weekly periodic extension is well described by the elliptic-orbit model, which presents a vivid description for analysing electric daily peak load movement in a concise and intuitive way, and others may benefit from it.