Research on wartime aircraft carrier SoS POL support strategy based on system dynamics

The continuous process of ILS (Integrated Logistic Support) tasks is attributed to the stable state of ILS process system composed of ILS activities. In terms of individual activity, the variation of the entire process state was random, but from an overall perspective, it followed certain statistical regularity. According to the above characteristics of ILS process, the author was able to discover the key activities in the ILS process, and then to describe the key activities by virtue of system dynamics after the refinement of the key activities. After modeling the ILS process through Vensim software to set the initial value and simulation, we could observe the changes of the parameters involved in ILS activities. Through these efforts, it became possible to predict the abnormal activities. Then the author further found the key parameters which to a large extend affect the ILS process to ensure that ILS process would be carried out smoothly. This paper tried to verity this method by analyzing wartime aircraft carrier system of systems (SoS) POL support. The ILS tasks practice demonstrated that system dynamics method, specific to the predictions about complex ILS activities anomalies, could timely and effectively improve the reliability and accuracy of ILS support strategy.