Production, takt and lead time variation: Production planning and tardiness probabilities in small-lot production

This paper describes the production planning and control processes of two companies, which interact closely in the maritime supply chain. Our claim is that current theoretical models of the near-static tardiness that may be observed are insufficient. We offer an alternative, probability-based approach. This approach and some associated concepts, such as dedicated manufacturing, the accordion effect, the fixed tardiness anomaly and unlucky units may be used by small-lot, high-competencies and value-adding, innovative manufacturers, to revise the manufacturing planning and control approaches.