ArcGIS for assessment and display of the probability of forest fire danger

This paper describes geoinformation system that includes toolset for analysis of forest areas taxation aimed at quantitative evaluation of forest fire danger. The system takes into consideration such factors as anthropogenic load, storm activity and influence focused sunlight. Conceptual basis of GIS system is physically and mathematically proved methodic of forest fire danger assessment. Computational formulae of probability of forest fire initiation are derived from basic statement of probability theory. The system is implemented in specialized software ArcGIS. The system uses standard user interface with additional functionality for assessment of probability of fire incidents in the forest quarters area due to action of caused sunlight. Received information is displayed on the map. For extra capabilities in evaluating forest fire danger unique instruments were developed in built-in Python programming language. The system is capable of evaluating probability and classification of fire danger and can be used for early detection and prediction of disasters of natural and technogenic origin.