DocumentCode
1773917
Title
Forecasting exchange rates: Artificial neural networks vs regression
Author
Semaan, David ; Harb, Atef ; Kassem, Abdallah
Author_Institution
Grad. Div., Notre Dame Univ. Louaize, Zouk Mosbeh, Lebanon
fYear
2014
fDate
April 29 2014-May 1 2014
Firstpage
156
Lastpage
161
Abstract
Most exchange rates are volatile and mainly rely on the principle of supply and demand. Millions of people around the world are influenced, one way or another, by the variation in exchange rates. In this research we demonstrate that the Artificial Intelligence, specifically Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), can improve the accuracy of forecasting exchange rates compared to statistical techniques such as regression. When we compared the results from regression and artificial neural network, it was clear that the ANN outperformed regression in forecasting exchange rates. Moreover, it became clear that using ANNs instead of regression for forecasting exchange rates is rewarding and necessary because the average error given by an ANN is smaller than the average error given by regression. Accuracy in forecasting became a major issue and not a minor detail. It was the combination between Artificial Intelligence and Macro Economics that made these two models come into reality, making it possible to use computer sciences and engineering fields in the service of an economical problem.
Keywords
artificial intelligence; exchange rates; financial management; macroeconomics; neural nets; regression analysis; supply and demand; ANN; artificial intelligence; artificial neural networks; exchange rates forecasting; macro economics; regression; supply and demand; Accuracy; Artificial neural networks; Biological system modeling; Exchange rates; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Artificial Neural Network; Balance of Payments; Exchange Rate; Forecasting; Inflation; Interest Rate; Multilayer Perceptron;
fLanguage
English
Publisher
ieee
Conference_Titel
e-Technologies and Networks for Development (ICeND), 2014 Third International Conference on
Conference_Location
Beirut
Print_ISBN
978-1-4799-3165-1
Type
conf
DOI
10.1109/ICeND.2014.6991371
Filename
6991371
Link To Document