• DocumentCode
    1773917
  • Title

    Forecasting exchange rates: Artificial neural networks vs regression

  • Author

    Semaan, David ; Harb, Atef ; Kassem, Abdallah

  • Author_Institution
    Grad. Div., Notre Dame Univ. Louaize, Zouk Mosbeh, Lebanon
  • fYear
    2014
  • fDate
    April 29 2014-May 1 2014
  • Firstpage
    156
  • Lastpage
    161
  • Abstract
    Most exchange rates are volatile and mainly rely on the principle of supply and demand. Millions of people around the world are influenced, one way or another, by the variation in exchange rates. In this research we demonstrate that the Artificial Intelligence, specifically Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), can improve the accuracy of forecasting exchange rates compared to statistical techniques such as regression. When we compared the results from regression and artificial neural network, it was clear that the ANN outperformed regression in forecasting exchange rates. Moreover, it became clear that using ANNs instead of regression for forecasting exchange rates is rewarding and necessary because the average error given by an ANN is smaller than the average error given by regression. Accuracy in forecasting became a major issue and not a minor detail. It was the combination between Artificial Intelligence and Macro Economics that made these two models come into reality, making it possible to use computer sciences and engineering fields in the service of an economical problem.
  • Keywords
    artificial intelligence; exchange rates; financial management; macroeconomics; neural nets; regression analysis; supply and demand; ANN; artificial intelligence; artificial neural networks; exchange rates forecasting; macro economics; regression; supply and demand; Accuracy; Artificial neural networks; Biological system modeling; Exchange rates; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Artificial Neural Network; Balance of Payments; Exchange Rate; Forecasting; Inflation; Interest Rate; Multilayer Perceptron;
  • fLanguage
    English
  • Publisher
    ieee
  • Conference_Titel
    e-Technologies and Networks for Development (ICeND), 2014 Third International Conference on
  • Conference_Location
    Beirut
  • Print_ISBN
    978-1-4799-3165-1
  • Type

    conf

  • DOI
    10.1109/ICeND.2014.6991371
  • Filename
    6991371