Fluctuation analysis of power investment

The power supply plays a vital role in China´s economy, and the power investment not only affects the long-term and stable development of the power industry, but also has a negative effect on the stable development of economy. Therefore, it is of great importance to discuss and analyze thoroughly how the power investment develops in accordance with the economic growth so as to avoid contradiction between electricity supply and electricity demand, which is resulted from deficiencies or excesses of thermal power investment, protect the electricity production capacity formed of electric power investment, and meet all industries´ demand of increasing electricity in the future. Firstly with the data from 1977 to 2013 of China power investment, economic growth electricity generation are used in analyzing the general characteristics of power investment fluctuation; Secondly by the HP filter analysis methods found the China power investment gap exists, then with the software Eviewss6.0, the data from 1990 to 2013 of China economic growth, electricity price, price indices of investment in fixed assets and fiscal expenditure are used in analyzing factors affecting the power investment fluctuation. Applying unit root test, Johansen test long-term equilibrium VAR model is obtained and analysis the causal relationship between variables by granger causality test. The result shows that there exists a similar cyclical fluctuation between economic growth and power investment, A long-term co-integration relationship existed among electricity investment growth economic growth, electricity price, price indices of investment in fixed assets and fiscal expenditure from 1990 to 2013; economic growth, electricity price, fiscal expenditure are all important factors to pull power investment, however price indices of investment in fixed assets has inhibitory effect on power investment. There has a multiplier-addend effect between economic growth and power investment, and should pay attenti- n to coordinating the relationship between them, Also suggested that gradually releasing the price regulation, so that electricity prices play a basic role in allocating.