Title :
Prediction of cascade failure using probabilistic approach with AC load flow
Author :
Dagur, D. ; Parimi, M. ; Wagh, S.R.
Author_Institution :
Electr. Eng. Dept., V.J.T.I. Mumbai, Mumbai, India
Abstract :
Cascading failures have been the cause of major blackouts in power systems which lead to economical loss and system instability. Following an initial triggering event, it is challenging to predict whether a system would remain stable or tend towards cascade. In order to predict cascading phenomena of power system which is a complex interconnected network, existing deterministic approach may fail to take into account network uncertainties which is taken care by probabilistic approach. Given an initial triggering event, this paper proposes a probabilistic approach to cascading failures in power system which predicts the next line to trip by considering the thermal limit of each line as a constraint. For every line outage, the deviations in line flows with respect to the mean are calculated and the line with the least deviation is the next probable line to trip. The results of this approach are verified using power world simulator.
Keywords :
cascade networks; load flow; power system interconnection; power system reliability; power system stability; power transmission lines; statistical distributions; AC load flow; cascade failure prediction; complex interconnected network uncertainty; economical loss; power blackouts; power system instability; power world simulator; probabilistic approach; transmission line; Asia; Power system faults; Power system protection; Power system stability; Probabilistic logic; Probability density function; Random variables; cascading failures; distribution function; load flow; mean deviation; probabilistic load flow;
Conference_Titel :
Innovative Smart Grid Technologies - Asia (ISGT Asia), 2014 IEEE
Conference_Location :
Kuala Lumpur
DOI :
10.1109/ISGT-Asia.2014.6873850