Title :
Short-term wind speed forecasting with ARIMA model
Author :
Radziukynas, Virginijus ; Klementavicius, Arturas
Author_Institution :
Lithuanian Energy Inst., Lithuania
Abstract :
The paper deals with the short-term forecasting of wind speed for the Laukžeme wind farm (Lithuania) using time series approach. The ARIMA model was selected and its best structure determined using the historical wind speed data (4 months) and varying both learning interval (3-5 days) of the model and the factual data averaging time (1-6 hours). The accuracy of forecasting was evaluated in terms of RMSE and absolute error. The forecasting results for 39 consecutive time intervals with 6-48 hourly forecasts are presented and discussed.
Keywords :
autoregressive moving average processes; load forecasting; time series; wind power plants; ARIMA model; Laukžeme wind farm; Lithuania; RMSE; absolute error; factual data averaging time (; historical wind speed data; learning interval; short-term wind speed forecasting; time series approach; wind speed; Forecasting; Mathematical model; Numerical models; Predictive models; Time series analysis; Wind forecasting; Wind speed; ARIMA model; RMSE; Time series analysis; short-term forecasts; wind farm; wind speed;
Conference_Titel :
Power and Electrical Engineering of Riga Technical University (RTUCON), 2014 55th International Scientific Conference on
Conference_Location :
Riga
Print_ISBN :
978-1-4799-7460-3
DOI :
10.1109/RTUCON.2014.6998223
