Non-stationary adaptive time series modeling for aircraft 4D trajectory conformance monitoring

The non-stationary adaptive integrated statistical time series modelling of deviations for short-term 4-D trajectory conformance monitoring is considered. The modelling of trajectory deviations is based on a stochastic, non-stationary, Recursive Integrated AutoRegressive (RIAR) scheme, and conformance monitoring is based on proper statistical tools and model-based predictions. The adaptive integrated modelling based framework is assessed via a simulation scenario. Comparisons with a recently developed method, as well as with a nominal probabilistic trajectory prediction method, are made, and the benefits of the postulated approach are demonstrated.